300 億ドルのブログ記事：金融基盤における AI 能力認識のシステミックリスク
The $30 Billion Blog Post: AI Capability Perception as Systemic Risk in Financial Infrastructure
研究概要
ある市場イベントを通して、大規模なソフトウェア刷新で認識される AI の能力と実際に示された能力の差を分析する。
原文要旨（英語）
On February 23, 2026, Anthropic published a blog post describing Claude Code's capabilities for COBOL modernization. IBM shares fell 13.2% in a single session, erasing approximately $30 billion in market capitalization — the largest single-session percentage decline since October 2000. This paper analyzes the event as a paradigmatic instance of "AI capability perception risk": systemic risk arising from the gap between demonstrated and market-priced AI capability, particularly for firms whose revenue depends on the perceived difficulty of legacy system modernization. We present an anatomy of the market event, including IBM's "stack multiplier" revenue exposure ($5.1B infrastructure revenue driving $15–20B+ in adjacent services), survey AI agent capabilities for legacy code transformation, and examine governance gaps in AI-driven code transformation for regulated financial systems. We conclude that AI capability perception risk is structurally underpriced, that COBOL workforce attrition will intensify it, and that existing regulatory frameworks do not address the intersection of AI capability, legacy infrastructure dependency, and market information asymmetry.